The 2024 fantasy football season is bringing a sort of changing of the guards at the top of the draft, with Justin Jefferson taking a tumble from his No. 1 overall ADP of last season.
The biggest questions now is who should replace him as the top pick and how far he should slide with Kirk Cousins no longer throwing him the ball in Minnesota.
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The answer to the first question comes down to two players for me: Christian McCaffrey and CeeDee Lamb. Those two led all position players in fantasy points in PPR leagues last season, and I see no reason to believe either will take a step back this year. As for where Jefferson should go, he's still a first-round talent but I maybe have him lower than most in my first mock draft of the offseason.
Related: Fantasy football snake draft strategy
1. Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
I think McCaffrey has another big season left in him before we need to start questioning how much longer he can hold up as a lead back. Especially in this Kyle Shanahan system that features him and opens up so many opportunities for his versatility to shine through.
2. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
I seriously considered Lamb with the first pick because of the injury risk that comes with McCaffrey, so I wouldn't blame anyone who decides to go No. 1 with him. Either way, he should be THE focal point of Dallas' offense and again lead all fantasy receivers.
3. Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Hill has been targeted 170 times for 119 catches and more than 1,700 yards in each of his two seasons in Miami. There's no reason to think he can't have that type of production a third year in Mike McDaniel's offense.
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
This is going to surprise some people who might have expected to see Justin Jefferson or Ja'Marr Chase as the next wide receiver off the board. But St. Brown was fantasy's WR3 last season, and his chemistry with Jared Goff makes me believe he can do it again. Especially as an intermediary threat who can rack up fast points in PPR leagues.
5. Breece Hall, New York Jets
I don't think anyone stands to benefit more from Aaron Rodgers' return to the Jets than Breece Hall. Not even Garrett Wilson. Having a respectable passing game should open up so much for New York's running game. Not to mention Hall is a threat as a receiver too.
6. Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
The only reason Chase isn't higher is because Tee Higgins will eat into his target share just a little. Regardless, the fourth-year receiver is poised to have maybe his biggest year yet if Joe Burrow can stay on the field.
7. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Still the best receiver in the NFL for my money, dropping Jefferson this low may very well end up as a massive mistake. I just can't shake the thought that the switch to Sam Darnold at quarterback negatively impacts his fantasy value.
8. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Robinson might be the fantasy RB1 if he didn't work in a timeshare with Tyler Allgeier. But even as he splits carries, he remains one of the league's most explosive backs and he'll rack up fantasy points as a ball-carrier and receiver with ease.
9. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Taylor has been impressive in his young career, but the best may still be to come for the 25-year-old. He's put up big numbers with average to below average quarterback play. Think about what he might do with a dynamic player like Anthony Richardson next to him.
10. A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
No matter the weapons that surround Brown, his production has been consistent in Philly. Don't expect much of a drop-off from his 145-plus targets and 1,400-plus yards from the past two seasons.
11. Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Speaking of Philly's weapons, those are my only questions when it comes to Barkley's fantasy value. I have no doubt he'll be an incredible addition to the team, but how much will Jalen Hurts' rushing prowess eat into his touchdown share? How much will they utilize him as a receiver? These things could be the difference between a top-5 running back and top 10.
12. Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
The alternatives to Henry here are Puca Nakua and Garrett Wilson. Not that it matters much in a snake draft, but I'll take the running back now and grab one of the receivers with the next pick. Either way, I expect a big season for Henry in a Ravens offense that likes to pound the rock.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: 2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 2 players deserve consideration at No. 1 before things get more interesting
